[Subversive_plot]

I read that Russia will default on a serious chunk of it's foreign debt on Wednesday this week (debt that must be paid in dollars, to which Russia has no access).

After intelligence that Russia asked China to help bail them out, the US State Department had a 7-hour conversation with China. The Chinese government is usually pretty adept at figuring out on which side it's bread is buttered. Russia is a relatively small, weak economy, the USA, UK, EU, Australia, New Zealand [add more in this space . . .] economies represent a lot more butter than Russia will ever have, and are firmly on Ukraine's side.  I don't expect China will side with the west, but I do think they will side with their own self- interest, stay out of it, and let Russia dig itself out of the quagmire it created.

India was recently approached by Russia to see if they were interested in some deeply discounted oil; I suspect the next 7-hour conversation will be had with Narendra Modi.

Unfortunately, Putin will likely murder a lot more people before this is all over, including his own people.

I noted recently that there are at least some Russian TV personalities (e.g., Marina Ovsyannikova, a TV editor, "Channel One", state media!) that have announced on-air what is going on, and Putin's war crimes. Very brave of her. Ms. Ovsyannikova is now missing, but Russia can't un-see that. 

[Hampshire Hog]

Fingers crossed someone in Russia realises Putin is causing chaos and removes him before anything else happens. It is shocking to see the damage he has already inflicted on women and children. It’s horrible to see how the Russian media have distorted what is actually happening.

[John]

With my interest in WW2, I tend to relate Ukraine's situation to what our situation would have been if Hitler had managed to get troops here. When that looked likely plans were put in place and they were ruthless. Nothing was out of bounds - we would have "defended our islands whatever the cost" but what if Hitler had gained a strong foothold, the population starving and cities being systematically demolished? Then the Germans offered to withdraw and sign a peace agreement. All we needed to do was give up the Channel Islands, Isle of Wight, Kent and Sussex that were under their control anyway.
Churchill knew that we had the resources of the empire to continue the fight plus a faith that the USA would eventually become involved. I suspect he would have kept going to the end but others in the Cabinet may have felt their duty lay in saving lives even at the cost of freedom.
Zelensky is in a worse position - he knows NATO will not become directly involved and whilst he can hold the Russians and make them pay dearly for every inch, he doesn't know how far Putin will go. Chemical? Biological? Nuclear?
I suspect the talks going on amount to surrender terms for Ukraine. Who can blame them?

[Longshanks]

I didn't think Putin would invade and don't think he will use nuclear weapons - outside of Ukraine anyway. So draw your own conclusions how clever I am at predicting.  However, he probably only wants an excuse to escalate (as if he needs one), so good job the USA stopped the transfer of MIGs and won't enforce a no fly zone. Otherwise expect a barrage of conventional cruise at London and other UK cities.

[rowlandwells]

every time we turn on the TV there's more and more carnage dished out by Russia to people just going about there daily lives its coming to something when someone gets shot just buying a loaf of bread that i read on the PC as I was typing this it begs belief where all this is going to end up with Putin shaking his fist at the west promising revenge on the western powers for standing up for the injustice he has caused on the Ukrainian people to keep there freedom for communist domination to live there lives in there own democratic country

I am some what surprised that some other countries not including the communist  countries have taken Putin's side  and in my opinion we and other countries should be thinking of including them in sanctions to and I'M not totally convinced the US are doing enough to bring Putin to heal because he's running wild at the moment and if and when he takes over the Ukraine what's the next little country to be gobbled up by the Russia bear

[John]

Couple of thoughts..
Most of the military pundits thought Ukraine would last a matter of a few days and here we are, a month later, and Russia is on the back foot as the Ukrainians re-take lost ground.
Russia's war crimes of destroying civilian targets like Mariupol are failing to gain them or break the will of the populace.
It's obvious that Ukrainians love their country and freedom as much as we do. Hitler's bombing of our cities failed to break our will - although the government feared it would prior to the start. Our bombing of German cities failed to break the German willl. When you look at films of Berlin at the end it was like Mariupol, yet the defenders made the Soviets fight for every inch.

I believe the entire Russian government and military command should be considered mass murdering criminals and treated as such

[bayleaf]

Interesting that Russian military are talking about revised war aims. Do you think Ukraine will accept any loss of territory to the aggressor who won't accept them having links to NATO?

[RubyRed]

Every may 1st Russia and other communist countries show their power and strength by wheeling out the fire power and ceremony in front of thousands. The May day parade. Wonder how he will celebrate this year. He has lost face up to now and won't look good if he doesnt make up some ground in ukraine. Bet he was hoping to have something to crow about by then.

[John]

Russia knows it cannot conquer Ukraine but it can destroy it perhaps. If the west supplied enough arms to hold on the ground and advanced anti-air equipment then Ukraine can resist but the anti-air is the key. What an awful choice for their president.

[Subversive_plot]

I saw an interesting story on Reuters regarding Ukrainian farmers efforts to keep their country and the world fed during wartime.  Agricultural heroes!

Ukrainian farmers don bulletproof vests to plough frontline fields

Rather than re-post the entire story, here is a link with the story and some video:  https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-farmers-don-bulletproof-vests-plough-frontline-fields-2022-04-26/

[John]

One paragraph that stood out..

Last week Ukraine's agriculture ministry said farmers have sown 2.5 million hectares of spring crops so far this year, 20% of the expected area, adding the spring sowing area could fall 20% due to the Russian invasion.

That's significant.

[Subversive_plot]

The reduction in planting, therefore reduction in harvest later on, will cause harm to local and global food supplies. Ukraine has as it's customers several countries that need their grain every year; Russia's war will have dire consequences for the countries that either can't buy the food or have to buy it at a higher cost.

I still think it's heroic that their farmers are willing to risk their lives to try to continue to grow that needed food.  Keep calm and carry on indeed.

[Aunt Sally]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-farmers-don-bulletproof-vests-plough-frontline-fields-2022-04-26/

Heroes indeed !!!

[John]

After all that has happened, I think Russians are going to find themselves as popular as Germans were in 1946. I just hope the west forces them to pay to rebuild Ukraine.

[rowlandwells]

absolutely rite John I agree with what your saying 100% hit ten guns Putin and Russia in there pockets