Coronavirus - actual risk

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Yorkie

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Re: Coronavirus - actual risk
« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2020, 15:11 »
Long covid, which impacts multiple parts of one's body and health, is a real thing.  The mortality rate is not the only measure which is important.

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Russell Atterbury

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Re: Coronavirus - actual risk
« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2020, 15:22 »
I think lock down and the economy are important things though. Although you can't judge anything just by percentages or 'the science'. For me the Swedish thing has to be considered interesting at least, and back to the percentages. They have a mortality rate that's virtually identical to the UK, and recent science is indicating they could be nearing herd immunity. The nightmare is not over, but if immunity is achieved, then I lay my hat down to the Swedes, for going against general consensus.

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New shoot

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Re: Coronavirus - actual risk
« Reply #17 on: September 10, 2020, 16:21 »
I think lock down and the economy are important things though. Although you can't judge anything just by percentages or 'the science'. For me the Swedish thing has to be considered interesting at least, and back to the percentages. They have a mortality rate that's virtually identical to the UK, and recent science is indicating they could be nearing herd immunity. The nightmare is not over, but if immunity is achieved, then I lay my hat down to the Swedes, for going against general consensus.

But they have different population densities and a different ethnic mix to the UK, so it would hard to draw a direct comparison and guess at whether we would have been better or worse off.  London has many times more people crammed into it than any city there, including communities known to be at higher risk.  The NHS were stretched there, even with lockdown.

As John has said, this thread is about assessing the data as we open up here in the UK and making decisions for yourself based on that. 

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Subversive_plot

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Re: Coronavirus - actual risk
« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2020, 02:06 »
COVID risks are directly related to behaviors.

Example:  I live in a college town, with many students starting their studies for the year in late August.  I'll over-simplify to discuss just students, and two student types:

Type 1: Recognizes COVID dangers and precautions, attends classes online when possible, participates in unavoidably "in person" learning (for example, laboratory classes for science courses) with safety protocols in place (mask, distancing, etc.).  Leaves campus when required classes are over.  Sadly, college is not as much fun as when mom and dad attended college.  Stressful.

Type 2: May do all of the same things as Type 1 during class work/study time.  But, wants to have the fun college experience.  Gathers maskless in large groups for parties, at local bars, music venues, football games, etc.  It is college after all, why not have fun?  Routinely goes from campus to home, visiting family and friends (also maskless, no distancing).  Family visits included that week he felt under the weather, with a cough and fever.

In the USA, COVID spreading at colleges is rampant now, nearly all of the spread associated with "Type 2".  The spreading extends when the student heads home, for just a visit, or when the student falls ill.

Some modelers have predicted 400,000 deaths in the USA by January. We are near 200,000 now.

I know we are in a global economy because my favorite gardening hat, purchased in the United States, was made in China by a Swiss company and has a label in Spanish.  (They all deserve their piece of the pie, wouldn't you agree? We are all in this world together.)

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John

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Re: Coronavirus - actual risk
« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2020, 09:49 »
It's understandable that young people aren't really concerned and feel old people are unfairly limiting their freedoms. It's unfortunately human nature.
There's a lot of comparing different countries going on - which is not generally helpful. Different geographies and climate are not due to wise planning by governments! Even in the USA there are huge differences - hence the difference between crowded New York and wide open spaces Montana.
However, there's no doubt that different approaches and attitudes make a difference. I feel the biggest mistake our government made was right at the start - expecting people to listen to advice and do the right thing. Instead they flocked to the beaches and treated it like a great holiday until advice became law and the body count started to rise.

Going back to my original post - the good news is that whilst we don't have a cure or a vaccine yet, we have developed more effective treatments to mitigate the illness and improve outcomes. I hope we won't need them but...
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Subversive_plot

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Re: Coronavirus - actual risk
« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2020, 10:58 »
I think that if the simplest and most effective strategies were mandated (masks, distancing, no exceptions, with penalties for violations), recovery of much of the world economy would be easier.  Certain types of business will be unavoidably impacted (hard to do in-person dining with a mask on; take-out is a flawed alternative, but probably necessary).

I hope that a rigorously tested, safe and effective vaccine becomes available soon. "Soon" will be at least months away, possibly much longer.

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John

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Re: Coronavirus - actual risk
« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2020, 12:36 »
Well masks seem to be a big issue in the US and with some over here too - which is a shame. My wearing a mask gives me very little additional protection but it gives protection to others if I turn out to have the disease. Ideally people will do it from a sense of duty to others but regulation seems to be the only way.

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JayG

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Re: Coronavirus - actual risk
« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2020, 15:38 »
My concern is that many people will have an exaggerated sense of safety from wearing a mask, and will forget the other important precautionary measures as a result (namely hand-washing, and social distancing whenever possible.)
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John

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Re: Coronavirus - actual risk
« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2020, 17:30 »
My concern is that many people will have an exaggerated sense of safety from wearing a mask, and will forget the other important precautionary measures as a result (namely hand-washing, and social distancing whenever possible.)
That seems to be quite common - my attitude is that mask wearing isn't a big deal but every little helps. Little bottle of cleaner in the car or pocket - cost 99p but could save my life.
Had to laugh, schools are back with distancing etc. Once the kids get outside it's huddles as usual.. at least around here. Then again, they've been roaming in groups over the summer anyway.


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Growster...

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Re: Coronavirus - actual risk
« Reply #24 on: September 11, 2020, 18:56 »
Our two small supermarkets are treating all this differently.

Waitrose have nobody on the door now, but seem to be accepting that trade is normal - which it almost is. Tesco have a 'route' to follow before being pointed to a till, otherwise, apart from looking like a bandit, I just sail through - with Waitrose's clicker, which is taken away afterwards, and cleaned up.

Masks are everywhere in both stores, but let's 'face' it, the contact with any virus will be rife in any store, even the pelican crossing, or the trolley handle!

Our fabulous Cottage Hospital Charity shop only accepts books, clothes etc on a Monday, and they ask everyone to bag them up to keep them for 72 hours until they can put the kit on the shelves. Apart from that, we all have a laugh (what else), and stick to the rules!

One or two of the saddest issues are we have is that we can't shake hands with chums; hugs are out as well, and we probably don't go shopping as retired old pharts, as we used to...

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John

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Re: Coronavirus - actual risk
« Reply #25 on: September 12, 2020, 19:17 »
Our two small supermarkets are treating all this differently.
The coop in the village is limiting the number of people allowed in at any one time, again. The PO stores not so much - although we go down at 2.30pm with the post when it's quiet. If it's rammed, we try again tomorrow.
What a strange world it is at the moment!

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jezza

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Re: Coronavirus - actual risk
« Reply #26 on: September 12, 2020, 22:03 »
Hello this probably isn't the right place for this I was mowing a verge this morning there was 3 blue masks on it i saw 1 person drop one and asked them to politely pick it up only to be told to get lost(begins with F ends with F) if that's not irresponsible what is,I'm not allowed to pick them up with out a litter picker and a yellow bag (2.80 each)and 5.00 to despose of at the tip and all the paper work   jezza

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mumofstig

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Re: Coronavirus - actual risk
« Reply #27 on: September 13, 2020, 08:47 »
That's what's annoying me atm. The return to school kids, mostly the older boys tbh, come through the school gates and over the railway bridge. Once they're then out of sight of teachers, they throw their masks down on the end of our footpath. There's a bin there just for their rubbish, why don't they use it  and just who do they think should clear up their mess?  :mad:
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Aunt Sally

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Re: Coronavirus - actual risk
« Reply #28 on: September 13, 2020, 12:33 »
I would telephone the school and tell them, Mum.  They might station a teacher in your gardens to catch the little dears.
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John

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Re: Coronavirus - actual risk
« Reply #29 on: September 13, 2020, 13:54 »
I would telephone the school and tell them, Mum.  They might station a teacher in your gardens to catch the little dears.
You can watch the pigs flying past whilst waiting!  :D



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