[rowlandwells]

I was talking to a farmer friend of ours this afternoon and we where discussing the Russian invasion of  Ukraine and the effects it could have here and as he said Ukraine is one of the biggest suppliers of milling wheat for bread making and its been said that due to the present situation in the Ukraine Hungary has stopped shipping milling wheat? 

now obviously we buy milling wheat from other countries  probably including Ukraine so like most things when something is in short supply prices tend to rise so say we are we paying for around a pound for  family loaf given that wheat prices go up we could end up with paying double that in the coming months

all this talk about planting fields with trees and making ponds and cutting down what we produce we should be thinking about producing more food crops instead of less especially wheat production when WW2 ended farmers where told to grow more cereal crops to feed the country and of cause now we all have full bellies
food production has not been an issue but things are about to change your food bill is going to rise and rise you know it will and that's not counting your fuel bills

lets take a look at what's actually gone up road fuel including central heating fuel and agricultural fuel then there's fertilizers also gone up in leaps and bounds road tax gone up electricity and gas about to rise to an all time high and that's only a few things

my farmer friends have around five hundred tonnes of wheat sitting in his sheds already sold waiting for collection so if the price of wheat goes up who gains not the farmer because he's already been paid for that wheat prior to price increase  so any wheat price rises will be for the bakeries to pick up the tab  who will  pass the price increase of onto to the good old consumer

even if you make your own bread I dread to think what bread making flower will cost we have just bought a bread making machine but I can't see any savings buy using that more of a luxury me thinks anyway you thoughts on this topic and what you think am i rite or am i just talking out my ?

[mumofstig]

You are telling it like it is RW
Ukraine and Russia account for almost one-third of global wheat exports, and wholesale prices are already rising quickly 
I make most of my own bread and have already bought quite a few bags of bread flour, direct from the mill, and a larger than usual pot of dried yeast, as a cushion against scarcity/price rises as time goes by.
I will continue to add it, as usual, to my monthly supermarket delivery, all the time the prices are reasonable, though... well sealed and stored somewhere cool, flour will last about a year.

[John]

Most Ukrainian wheat was sold to the Middle East but as they'll buy elsewhere the price of wheat everywhere  will rise. The international price of wheat shot up on Day 1 of the war.
Maize is also a major Ukrainian export and cooking oils, especially sunflower oil.
Because of rises in energy and fertiliser costs, the grocery people were expecting a £3.00 basic loaf on the shelf. That may well be £4.00 now.
Because wheat and maize are staples, some will swap to rice and that will shoot up. Grow more spuds!
If you can bake your own, that should work out cheaper. At least you get a better product for the same price as a cheap supermarket loaf.
Flour can be stored frozen - white flour stores pretty well in any case but wholemeal contains more oils so can go rancid after 6 months or so.
We never had bread rationing in the war but the government kept pushing people to eat more potatoes to get their carbs instead.

[Hampshire Hog]

I have a bread maker and usually bake a loaf or so a week as a treat.
One thought though if I buy more flour and bake more as I did during Lock down how much will I end up paying for the electricity?? Logically commercially baked bread should be more efficient. Having said that at present I only bake one loaf at a time in the oven so if I did want to save power I should boost the number of loaves in the oven. Life is getting complicated but this is a small issue compared to what the poor Ukrainians are enduring!

[John]

A bread making machine uses around .34 Kwh so the cost of baking in power would be around 10p at the moment maybe rising to 20p as electric costs go up during the year.
Basic Tesco white bread flour runs at £1.00 per 1.5Kg with premium Allinson at £2.00
A standard 750g loaf would use 500g of flour value 50p to £1.00 plus a bit of sugar, salt, oil and milk powder. So a breadmaker loaf could be as cheap as 75p but the cheapest plastic loaf at Tesco is 59p (prices on their site as I write) most loaves run over  £1.10
I'd contend you get a better tasting and healthier product from a breadmaker than the shop. Less salt and sugar.

[Growster...]

Pasta will certainly be affected too, and if the rice-growers get in on the act, as they probably will, the old carbs will be at a premium for some time to come!

It might make us all a bit thinner around the waist though, and maybe the dreadful junk-food chains will get a well-deserved knock as well...

[Lardman]

I'm not sure about everyone elses fresh loaf but mine is lucky to last a day  whereas the cottonwool loaves tend to last me 3-4.

It might make us all a bit thinner around the waist though, and maybe the dreadful junk-food chains will get a well-deserved knock as well...

I'd be concerned about the opposite - it was already a close call between the cost of buying real ingredients and preparing a meal to just grabbing a ready meal off the shelf. With an ever decreasing budget and a 10-30% increase in each raw ingredient I can see more people turning to junk food meals which appear to have been kept at a fixed price point and quantity/quality reduced.

Don't forget about the huge increase across the dairy range too, I nearly fell of my chair when I saw lurpak spreadable was more expensive than proper butter again. Can't have your fresh, warm crusty bread without smear of butter - back in a bit I need to put the bread maker on   

[lettice]

I make a lot of bread and have done for a few decades, using beadmakers.
Have not bought any kind of loaf in that time.
Regularly through the week make a few batches of baguettes, toasted sesame oil, cottage and half/half white/brown mixed loaves.
Do once a week  choose a specialist bread like a focaccia, mixed grain, rye. soar dough, french country, granary, Italian herb and tomato, rolls, naans, pitta etc.
Do also make some cake type options at least once a fortnight like hot cross buns, malt loaves and tea loaves

Apart from the half/half white/brown mixed, malt and tea loaves that is all done in the beadmaker, all the rest is done using the the dough option.

I buy all my strong and brown bread flours from Waitrose and Asda each week, their own branded ones.
Now all through online delivery that I changed to from the beginning of the pandemic and will stay doing.
The Asda strong flours are around 60-70p for both and Waitrose is 80p-£1.00 for both of their own branded.
Have noticed the price has fluctuated up and down at that kind of price for the last few decades or so.
Have never had any trouble getting it, but oddly lately and the order I had last few months and last week from Asda and Waitrose the price has dropped to 60p and 75p.

I know someone who is a city stock exchange buyer for large retailers in the UK and just spoke with him.
He says all our main five main supermarkets own brand flour and most UK bread and plain flour is supplied approx 85-90% from the UK.
We do import specialist flour from Canada, but it will specify that and is only seen to the general public branded as Canadian.
We do import the rest from Germany, that tends to be more the Rye, pasta type and other specialist flour. But two of the newer low end supermarkets do as one is of course German, do source all their flour products from Germany.
Any imports of plain and bread flour to the UK from Germany are through other brands as apart of top-up supply chains.
We do not he said as far as he has been aware for many years imported any flour from Russia.
But flour get puts within a lot of other products, so many European factories may import flour from other sources, mostly Germany, but also France.

[mrs bouquet]

Forgive my lack of knowledge, but if you buy ordinary plain or S.R flour isn't it the same which ever supermarket you buy it from ?    Mrs Bouquet

[mumofstig]

Mmm, that's a difficult one Mrs B..
I do like Lidl's plain, s/r and white bread flour - but I'm not a fan of any of Tesco's, which seem to give a heavier result.
So I think you just have to try them and see which you prefer...

[DanielCoffey]

There are some British flour mills where you can actually select UK-sourced wheat rather than EU or Canadian.  Remember though that UK wheat for bread making is "softer" than, say, Canadian so you will have to accept a loaf that doesn't rise quite as much if you have been used to high-gluten strong flour.

[rowlandwells]

yes very good replies to this topic its got me thinking I should get some strong flour in for our new bread maker I take you point we don't import Russian flour but as you know it don't take much for someone to decide they need to put the price up because of something or another

and if its rite that Farmers are going to struggle to get fertilizer and if they get it its up double the price around £650 per tonne this year and of cause if they don't put fertilizer on the crops then the crop yields will be down meaning we need to import more wheat at what price?

and I haven't even mentioned those of you who heat your greenhouses with gas electricity or paraffin because all these are definitely going to cost you more as it will be the some for the commercial growers who will know doubt pass that increase onto the consumer

its endless where all these price increases are going we know as pensioners our pension is not going to fall inline with these price increases its going to hit some people very hard in the coming months and don't even think of what your going to pay to keep yourself warm next winter

[John]

There's not a lot we can do about energy - apart from stay home and shiver - but at least we can grow our own. We're going to see horrendous price hikes on food over the next 2 years. Here in the UK it is going to be tough but in many countries it will be a lot worse. They reckon the 'Arab spring' was sparked by food prices. When people have missed three meals in a row is when civil disorder starts.
We don't import Russian or Ukrainian wheat but the countries that do will start to buy the grains we do import. In fact it's started, see the chart image.

[coldandwindy]

In fact it's started, see the chart image.

We eat a lot of bread. Mrs Windy buys a big order of Canadian bread flour once a month. It was £1.46 per Kilo last time, now its £1.83. Guessing people are panic buying - stock is low on the site she uses.
Incidentally I did the maths a while ago - if you have an electric cooker its cheaper to make bread in a bread maker than baking 2 at a time in the oven.

Edited to add - those prices are including delivery to the back of beyond!

[rowlandwells]

good reply John because those comments are very true all the more reason to grow what you can and take full advantage of growing food on your allotments we have 2 quite large plots and we tend to give away any spare veg to our friends who don't have an allotment or are unable to do an allotment for one reason or another its a pleasure to give to those who appreciate what's given to them because they are always  great full of fresh veg

we have been asked if we sell our veg that we could do easy but I tell them allotments are  for our own use not for re-sale because I believe allotments are for  mainly growing veg to eat and not a flower garden although we do grow a few cut flowers for the bees and the house but primary our allotments are for growing food that's even more important these days