[Growster...]

Our EDF account shows a debit of £66.00, then a credit of the same amount, and nothing has appeared in our bank statement as of last Wednesday, when our DD goes in!

Not sure what they're playing at...

[Hampshire Hog]

Shell profits 8.2 Billion £ for the last quarter around double the same period last year.
Surprisingly this correlates with our massively larger energy bills!!
Only good news is the warmer than normal weather.

[bayleaf]

Blimey I thought my bills were bad HH but that's astounding!

[Growster...]

I've just picked up twenty bags of offcuts from the building site nearby - the builder is glad to see the back of them, and we're extremely pleased to see the front of them...

But it still beats me how on earth the MSM, the electricity suppliers, the Met Office, even the awful disarrayed gummint are able to predict that this winter will be the worst ever! Perhaps the chunk of seaweed they have hanging outside their back door is gibbering something!

I see a huge softening-up process; but call me cynical!

[mumofstig]

able to predict that this winter will be the worst ever

I think it's only going to be the worst ever winter, because of the costs involved  tbh 

[Growster...]

able to predict that this winter will be the worst ever

I think it's only going to be the worst ever winter, because of the costs involved  tbh 

Surely you're not saying that even if it isn't at all cold, we'll be 'told' that it'll seem to be cold, Mum?

Hmmm, you're spot on there!  ;0)

[mumofstig]

That's obvious to me, Growster, because with all this Global Warming, that we keep being warned about (that's definitely happening, right? ) it couldn't possibly be a cold one, could it? 

[Growster...]

What with all the scaremongering about the Arctic ice 'diminishing'. it 'SEEMS' that the Antarctic ice is developing nicely! I usually get all my important news from alternative sources because I get a proper answer that way!

Here are a few quotes to ponder, if you really have the time and patience to bother...

— “No matter if the science of global warming is all phony. … climate change provides the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world.” – Christine Stewart, former Canadian Minister of the Environment

— “The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models.” – Professor Chris Folland, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

— “The models are convenient fictions that provide something very useful.” – Dr David Frame, climate modeler, Oxford University.

— “It doesn’t matter what is true, it only matters what people believe is true.” – Paul Watson, co-founder of Greenpeace.

Of course, you understand Mum, as most of us here do, but I'll still keep collecting the pallets, and have just been offered almost unlimited logs from a chum - for free!

Goferit Growster! (said Mrs Growster)!

[John]

On climate change aka global warming, I reckon an overwhelming majority consensus of scientists outweighs some ' alternative facts.'  Taking quotes out of context is rarely helpful.

“The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models.”

That's obviously sensible, the models are based on large data sets and, so long as the data input was accurate and the model is correct, indicate how things are going and actions required. To alter outcomes you need to know what outcomes are likely.

The models are convenient fictions that provide something very useful.

All models are 'convenient fictions' just as the map is not the territory. As time goes on, the climate models become more and more accurate but not 100% - hence the ranges and uncertainties in the climate reports. Maps aren't 100% accurate but they make it a lot easier to know how to get somewhere.

It doesn’t matter what is true, it only matters what people believe is true.

I'd disagree with that as it reads but if people don't believe in the reality of a situation, they won't act / react appropriately and in that sense it's true.
 

[Lardman]

There's no doubt that climate changes, the fossil and geological records are pretty clear about it.   

[mumofstig]

There's no doubt that climate changes, the fossil and geological records are pretty clear about it.   

The question still is - how accurate are the predictions?
When past records and graphs have been 'adjusted' to fit the computer generated trend-line, which does make me hesitant to accept the ever more extreme predictions.
I really don't think that scientists have the necessary knowledge of how climate interacts with weather, ocean currents, sunspot cycles etc, to make accurate forecasts.

[John]

There are ways to validate a model - insert data and then run a simulation for a past year and see how it compares with the actual.
With the increased computing power and data points, they get better as time goes on.

[snowdrops]

Well I’ve had my credit refunded into my account even though I was ‘told’ since I hadn’t got a Direct debit I’d receive a cheque, and I’ve had an email to say I’ll receive my cheque in 5 days, so I might be quids in lol

[John]

I know of someone who's had a double payment so you could be in luck.

[mumofstig]

There are ways to validate a model - insert data and then run a simulation for a past year and see how it compares with the actual.
With the increased computing power and data points, they get better as time goes on.

The daily weather forecasts for the week ahead don't seem to improve, so I'm not so sure